Since late August, glass futures have been pulling back continuously and have not stopped falling. In the spot market, the overall price of glass has slowed down in recent days, and the market confidence is insufficient. Analysts believe that the poor performance of real estate data has depressed investor confidence, but the spot performance is not very weak. Compared with the similar trend of glass prices this year in 2013, there is still room for glass futures prices to rise before the end of October.
Downstream depression depresses glass futures prices
Relying on the initiative of production enterprises to raise prices, the average price of glass in China has increased by about 70 yuan/ton in the past month. Last week, the overall trend of the glass spot market is still acceptable, the situation of the production enterprises out of warehouse is slightly better than before, and the market price has also increased by a certain margin.
However, from yesterday's point of view, the overall trend of the glass spot market tends to be stable, production enterprises are basically normal out of warehouse, the scope and extent of market price adjustment have slowed down, and overall, market confidence has also slightly declined. However, the order situation of downstream processing enterprises has not increased significantly.
Zhang Dawei, chief real estate analyst of Central Plains, pointed out that in the first week of "Gold, Nine, Silver and Ten", the overall volume of first-tier cities remained depressed, with an average ring-to-ring decline of 20%. Among them, Beijing ring-to-ring fell 28%, with a 60% year-on-year decline; Guangzhou ring-to-year decline of 32%, with a 72% year-on-year decline; Shanghai ring-to-year decline of 22%, with a 27% year decline.
"Compared with the same period last year, on the one hand, the demand of terminal market has declined, orders of glass deep processing enterprises are not up to expectations, especially in some areas because of environmental protection problems, which affects the start-up rate; on the other hand, the price of raw materials of glass production enterprises has increased by different ranges over the same period of last year, resulting in the profitability of manufacturers. The situation has declined. Manufacturing enterprises are eager to be able to transmit pressure to downstream processing enterprises through price increases. At present, the effect is general. The order price of processing enterprises has not increased by the same proportion. The increase is very small. The price of glass sheet is mostly digested by itself. China Glass Futures Network analysts believe.
Still optimistic by the end of October
According to the survey conducted by China Glass Futures Network in various regions yesterday, some manufacturers in East China have followed up their quotations slightly and the market trend is general; prices in South China are mainly stable, and are now at a high level, while glass inflows in parts of Central China have increased; prices of some manufacturers in North China have risen slightly in the earlier period without follow-up. The degree is not very high.
Industry insiders said that after the price coordination meeting held by the production enterprises in central China, the production enterprises in southern China will also hold the price coordination meeting in the region this weekend. At present, the southern market is better than the northern region, which has been shown by the increase in spot prices before. The rapid rise of prices in the southern market also helps to keep the market trend in the northern region in a good direction, thus balancing the market coordination of the whole country.
Hu Huarong, a senior analyst, believes that the average spot price trend of Baibo, the mainstream product in China since mid-August this year, is very similar to that of 2013. In 2013, the National White Glass spot price rose slowly and steadily, with a cumulative increase of 58 yuan/ton; in 2017, the National White Glass spot price also rose slowly and steadily, with a cumulative increase of about 70 yuan/ton.
"In other words, the price increase in the"Gold, Nine, Silver and Ten"cycle in 2013 is about half of the increase in glass prices in the same period of the previous year. Based on this, it is estimated that the highest price increase of glass in the"Gold, Nine, Silver and Ten"cycle in 2017 will be 100 yuan/ton, and there will be up to 30 yuan/ton in the future. The peak time is about October." Hu Huarong said.
He believes that the recent weakening of glass futures prices is due to investors'less optimistic expectations of the future market than the spot market. Especially during the "gold, silver and ten" traditional consumption season, China's real estate market continued to weaken, housing new construction area, completed area and sales area data. Weakness, property market regulation policy and central bank's return to currency have led to investors'lack of confidence in the future market of glass. Since late August, glass futures have fallen from 1467 yuan/ton to 1365 yuan/ton, down by about 100 yuan/ton.